Today begins a new era in Mets baseball, one that honestly should have begun years ago - the post-Omar era. Sandy Alderson will officially be named the new general manager, and based on what I've read about him I'm very excited about the next four years.
I'm not a fool, I don't expect miracles from Alderson and his new regime; in fact, quite the opposite - I'd bet the Mets of 2011 won't be appreciably better than the Mets of 2010, unless the changes made in the roster are more drastic than I think they will be. The changes that Alderson will bring, though, are going to go far beyond the team's win-loss record, and that's what excites me.
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Over the past decade or so, the Mets have been a wreck, both on and off the field. They went to the World Series in 2000 and were arguably the best team in baseball in 2006 (though they lost in the NLCS). Aside from that, as a baseball-playing group, they've failed. They were "contenders" who missed the playoffs in 2001, 2007 and 2008 (spectacularly so in the latter two years). Every other year in the 21st century, the Mets have been flat-out bad. And I'm sure that it goes without saying that rooting for a crappy team isn't much fun.
If anything, the Mets have been even worse off the field. They haven't had quite the issues with players that some teams have, Francisco Rodriguez and Johan Santana notwithstanding. The real issue has been the non-player staff. Let's go through the greatest hits:
- In 2009, VP for player development Tony Bernazard challenged minor leaguers to fight after a game. The incident included Bernazard taking his shirt off, a la Jersey Shore.
- Shortly after that incident came to light, Bernazard nearly got in a fight with K-Rod after a game, for no discernible reason. He kept his shirt on that time.
- Obviously, getting in fights with the players isn't good, so Omar Minaya (finally) fired Bernazard. Simple enough? Well, not if the general manager of the Mets openly accuses a beat writer of "lobby" for a job with the team. (Read this transcript of the press conference. It pretty much explains all of the problems that Omar Minaya had as GM of the Mets.)
Beside all that, actual player decisions were made in a totally irrational fashion. Rich, long-term contracts were given to ageing and inconsistent players. Terrible trades were made. Player injuries were handled in a haphazard and simply dangerous fashion. Player development was, to put it bluntly, a joke. In short, Omar Minaya's Mets did everything wrong.
As a fan of a team, you want to be able to defend against outside mockery. When rival teams' fans take shots at your team, you want to be able to have something, anything, to use to defend your team. When Omar was in charge, there was no way to do that. The team was run in an irrational manner, and there's no way to rationally defend irrationality.
And that is a big reason why I'm thrilled about the installation of Sandy Alderson. I don't expect domination. I don't even expect a championship. I am smart enough to know that it's really hard to win a World Series, and that while fans should definitely hope to win, expecting to win is really only the realm of the arrogant and the egotistical. But what I do expect is rationality. I'm listening to Alderson's introductory press conference right now, and what I'm hearing is what I expected, based on what I know about Alderson - a smart, well-spoken man who thinks rather than feels. When Minaya was in charge, it seemed that most decisions were made based on faulty reasoning and gut reactions. Alderson says things like "the mathematics don't lie" and that on-base percentage and slugging percentage are important. That's the way to build a team that has the ability to win a championship, and more than anything, it's the way to make a franchise respectable again.
The Mets may not win the pennant every year for the next decade - in fact, they probably won't. But at least we know that the people in charge know what they're doing, that they will create and execute a plan, and that the plan will be based on sound principles. We know that we no longer have to fear that at any moment, team officials could be forcing a guy with a concussion to play, or challenging 20-year-old kids to fights. The team will not be a laughingstock, and that's a damn good first step.
Friday, October 29, 2010
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
A hurried baseball playoffs preview
I went for a run last weekend, and I needed to wear a glove. It's cold out, but it's still the kind of cold that makes you feel more awake than you really are, rather than the kind of cold that makes you wish you lived in Mallorca. And while this means many things, the thing it means for the purpose of this blog post is that it's time for playoff baseball.
It's been a rough couple of years for me as a baseball fan. The Mets haven't been legitimately good since I was a freshman in college. The Red Sox are out of the playoffs for the first time since that same year, but they haven't been a legitimate championship contender since the 2007 season (in which they were really strong contenders, contending longer than anyone else). In the past two seasons, the two teams I most hate - the Phillies and then the Yankees - won championships. It got to the point where I was sort of rooting for the Braves at one point this year. The Braves.
But though it's not much fun, with my favorite teams on early-fall vacations and my most despised primed for glory, I'm a baseball fan, so I'm obligated to watch the playoffs. Why? Because the playoffs are awesome, no matter who's playing. The only sport that has an argument for a superior playoffs is hockey, and that's mostly just because they have a cooler trophy. But that's not what I'm interested in talking about right now, mostly because it's far too Costasian and I'm far too tall to write like he talks.
I'm sticking to who's going to win and why it's going to happen. I know the games have started, but I tweeted the picks earlier. So I'm not using the first slate of games as a barometer - these are blind picks. They're blind in another way - though I love me some statistics, I'm going against my own advice and going mostly on gut feelings. We'll see how much I know about a baseball season that I largely ignored, for the sake of my emotional state. I'll talk a bit about the championship series and the World Series as I pick them, but I'll cover that more after the actual teams are set. I'm assuming I won't have a perfect record of picks here. Let's do this thing.
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ALDS: Rays over Rangers (3-1), Twins over Yankees (3-2)
There are two reasons I'm picking the Rays to win the first of the divisional series to start. First of all, I'm totally unconvinced that any team expecting to get anything out of Jeff Francoeur can win. He's played pretty well since the Mets traded him, but that's mostly (if not entirely) due to the small size of the available sample. He is not a good hitter. Of course, he's a bench player, because though he's a cocaine fan, Ron Washington is still apparently smarter than Jerry Manuel. So he's not really that much of a factor.
The main reason I'm picking the Rays is because I think they're much deeper than the Rangers. Josh Hamilton has been hurt, as has Evan Longoria. But the Rays don't rely on Longoria the same way that the Rangers lean on Hamilton. They also have a deeper pitching staff, to my eye. I feel like the Rangers have, to an extent, gotten fat on a weaker division out west, while the Rays have had to deal with the Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays all summer. The Rays have performed better against better competition, and that's why they'll win this series.
In the other series, I'm going against history. The Yankees have beaten the Twins in the playoffs several times in the past decade, but this year I think the twins are going to finally break through. The main reason for this is my belief that these Yankees are very overrated. CC Sabathia is a very good pitcher (not the best in the league, but that's another post), but after him, they'll be relying on the injured Andy Pettite and the unknown quantity that is Phil Hughes. Their bullpen is Mariano Rivera and a collection of inconsistency. Their lineup is very good, but hitting doesn't win in the playoffs the same way it does in the regular season. They're going to have to lean on their pitching, and their pitching is going to crack at some point. The Yankees are going to win two games, but that's all.
NLDS: Phillies over Reds (3-0), Giants over Braves (3-1)
The Phillies are a good team. They have three pitchers better than the Reds' best, and I see no situation in which the Reds will be able to beat the Phillies. The Reds have some hitters, but I don't think that they'll break through against Halladay or Oswalt. Hamels is a bit less reliable in my eyes, but he's still better than Johnny Cueto. Also, as much as I dislike Hamels, he hasn't ended anyone's career.
The Giants and Braves can both pitch. Neither can hit. The Giants are better at pitching. They're going to win. (That, by the way, is the most laconic thing I've ever written.)
ALCS: Twins over Rays. This will be a very even series if it happens. Fundamentally sound, well-played baseball - entertaining for the fans, but maybe not anyone else. I see Joe Mauer having a huge series, and Jim Thome right behind him.
NLCS: Giants over Phillies. There will be about six runs scored in this series. The Giants are more used to having to scrape together runs, so they'll be better suited for a matchup like this.
World Series: Twins over Giants. The streak continues for San Francisco. Minnesota christens their new ballpark in style. Also, I'll get to say "Well played, Mauer" a lot.
Feel free to offer your own predictions in the comments, if you like. And if I said something stupid that is statistically unprovable, feel free to call me on it, but remember that this is based on my feel of the series, rather than...well, things that you can prove. It's less accurate, but it's more fun that way.
It's been a rough couple of years for me as a baseball fan. The Mets haven't been legitimately good since I was a freshman in college. The Red Sox are out of the playoffs for the first time since that same year, but they haven't been a legitimate championship contender since the 2007 season (in which they were really strong contenders, contending longer than anyone else). In the past two seasons, the two teams I most hate - the Phillies and then the Yankees - won championships. It got to the point where I was sort of rooting for the Braves at one point this year. The Braves.
But though it's not much fun, with my favorite teams on early-fall vacations and my most despised primed for glory, I'm a baseball fan, so I'm obligated to watch the playoffs. Why? Because the playoffs are awesome, no matter who's playing. The only sport that has an argument for a superior playoffs is hockey, and that's mostly just because they have a cooler trophy. But that's not what I'm interested in talking about right now, mostly because it's far too Costasian and I'm far too tall to write like he talks.
I'm sticking to who's going to win and why it's going to happen. I know the games have started, but I tweeted the picks earlier. So I'm not using the first slate of games as a barometer - these are blind picks. They're blind in another way - though I love me some statistics, I'm going against my own advice and going mostly on gut feelings. We'll see how much I know about a baseball season that I largely ignored, for the sake of my emotional state. I'll talk a bit about the championship series and the World Series as I pick them, but I'll cover that more after the actual teams are set. I'm assuming I won't have a perfect record of picks here. Let's do this thing.
More stuff
ALDS: Rays over Rangers (3-1), Twins over Yankees (3-2)
There are two reasons I'm picking the Rays to win the first of the divisional series to start. First of all, I'm totally unconvinced that any team expecting to get anything out of Jeff Francoeur can win. He's played pretty well since the Mets traded him, but that's mostly (if not entirely) due to the small size of the available sample. He is not a good hitter. Of course, he's a bench player, because though he's a cocaine fan, Ron Washington is still apparently smarter than Jerry Manuel. So he's not really that much of a factor.
The main reason I'm picking the Rays is because I think they're much deeper than the Rangers. Josh Hamilton has been hurt, as has Evan Longoria. But the Rays don't rely on Longoria the same way that the Rangers lean on Hamilton. They also have a deeper pitching staff, to my eye. I feel like the Rangers have, to an extent, gotten fat on a weaker division out west, while the Rays have had to deal with the Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays all summer. The Rays have performed better against better competition, and that's why they'll win this series.
In the other series, I'm going against history. The Yankees have beaten the Twins in the playoffs several times in the past decade, but this year I think the twins are going to finally break through. The main reason for this is my belief that these Yankees are very overrated. CC Sabathia is a very good pitcher (not the best in the league, but that's another post), but after him, they'll be relying on the injured Andy Pettite and the unknown quantity that is Phil Hughes. Their bullpen is Mariano Rivera and a collection of inconsistency. Their lineup is very good, but hitting doesn't win in the playoffs the same way it does in the regular season. They're going to have to lean on their pitching, and their pitching is going to crack at some point. The Yankees are going to win two games, but that's all.
NLDS: Phillies over Reds (3-0), Giants over Braves (3-1)
The Phillies are a good team. They have three pitchers better than the Reds' best, and I see no situation in which the Reds will be able to beat the Phillies. The Reds have some hitters, but I don't think that they'll break through against Halladay or Oswalt. Hamels is a bit less reliable in my eyes, but he's still better than Johnny Cueto. Also, as much as I dislike Hamels, he hasn't ended anyone's career.
The Giants and Braves can both pitch. Neither can hit. The Giants are better at pitching. They're going to win. (That, by the way, is the most laconic thing I've ever written.)
ALCS: Twins over Rays. This will be a very even series if it happens. Fundamentally sound, well-played baseball - entertaining for the fans, but maybe not anyone else. I see Joe Mauer having a huge series, and Jim Thome right behind him.
NLCS: Giants over Phillies. There will be about six runs scored in this series. The Giants are more used to having to scrape together runs, so they'll be better suited for a matchup like this.
World Series: Twins over Giants. The streak continues for San Francisco. Minnesota christens their new ballpark in style. Also, I'll get to say "Well played, Mauer" a lot.
Feel free to offer your own predictions in the comments, if you like. And if I said something stupid that is statistically unprovable, feel free to call me on it, but remember that this is based on my feel of the series, rather than...well, things that you can prove. It's less accurate, but it's more fun that way.
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